WASHINGTON (AP) -- The outlook for jobs became a bit less bleak with January's unexpected decline in the unemployment rate, which fell to 9.7 percent from 10 percent as more people said they had jobs.

Still, Friday's unemployment report showed just how deep the job crisis remains. The government now estimates 8.4 million jobs vanished in the Great Recession, and economists think the nation would be lucky to get back 1.5 million of them this year. And they say it will take at least three to four years for the job market to return to anything like normal. <End>

Not particurally good news for the office market. Employment is directly related to occupancy. If the econimists are correct, it means office space occupancy will take three to four years to return to normal vacancy rates in the 8% - 12% range.

So we have 2 apparently conflicting reports on the same day.  The Fed survey tells us loans are not loosening for commercial properties and then the Mortgage Bankers tell us that they increased in the 4th Quarter of 2009 over 2008. What's going on?

It seems pretty apparent what is happening, but it could be a confusing to some trying to figure it out. Basically, originations immediately after the crash in 2008 would have come to a standstill, 4th Q 2008 originations would be nil for commercial properties. Everyone was on hold.  Even a very low number of originations in 4th Q 2009 would be an increase. I'd be interested in finding out the numbers for 4Q 2007 and comparing to that. It seems to me to be a PR play by the Mortgage Bankers to have the public believe that they are doing commercial lending.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Tuesday that commercial mortgage originations were at a higher level during the last quarter of 2009 than in either the previous quarter or in the 4th quarter of 2008, but multifamily originations continued to lag. The data was part of the MBA's Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Bankers Originations.

Source: MND News Wire

Most large banks have stopped tightening standards on a number of loan types, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve. But the central bank’s latest loan officer survey says that while it may not be getting tougherfor consumers to borrow, it’s not getting any easier yet either because financial institutions have yet to unwind the considerable contraction that has built up over the past two years.

Market observers continue to lament the lack of financing available in the commercial sector, particularly with an estimated 1 in 5 commercial mortgages maturing over the next two years. If property owners are unable to roll this debt into new loans, analysts fear another real estate calamity could be on the horizon.

Full Article at DSNews.com

NEW YORK, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The worst may not be over for commercial real estate loans as vacancies remain high and rents decline, threatening the financial system with substantial losses, Standard & Poor's said on Monday.

"The fallout from commercial real estate exposures for banks has yet to run its course, in our opinion," S&P said in a report.

Although problems are already evident in the homebuilding and commercial construction sectors, they have yet to be felt in the larger mortgage lending and multifamily sectors because interest rates are low and cash flows are adequate to service debt, the rating agency said.

However, as interest rates rise and rent rolls decline further, delinquencies will rise and prices will fall further in these sectors as well, S&P said.

"Even though most highly exposed banks with weaker balance sheets are already rated below investment grade, more downgrades are possible," S&P said. Indeed, S&P already has negative outlooks on about 75 percent of the rated banks with the largest commercial real estate exposures, indicating they are at risk of a downgrade.

Despite the potential for heavy losses, however, most banks' capital is sufficient for them to pull through as long as the losses are realized over a few years and liquidity is maintained.

"Commercial real estate exposure generally tends to represent a higher proportion of smaller, largely unrated community banks' exposures," S&P said. "Therefore, there is a greater proportion of risks in the unrated banking sector.