January 8, 2010 WSJ - The office market in Washington, D.C., is poised to topple New York as the nation's most expensive, reflecting the declining fortunes of the nation's financial center and the government expansion under way in the U.S. capital.

Rents declined in almost all of the 79 American cities tracked by Reis Inc., a New York based-research firm, in the fourth quarter of 2009. The largest fall was in New York, where average effective rents -- or the net amount tenants pay after landlord concessions -- fell nearly 20% to $44.69 per square foot annually. It was the sharpest decline in rents ever recorded by Reis since it began compiling data in 1981.

By contrast, average rents in Washington were $41.77 per square foot, down 3% annually. Reis estimates that by the end of this year, rents in New York will come down to around $41.07, slightly below their estimates for Washington of $41.27.

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Federal Reserve Beige Book Summary
"Reports on commercial real estate markets indicated that demand for space remained weak and that construction continued to decline in all Districts. Atlanta, Philadelphia, Richmond, and San Francisco reported that vacancy rates increased, while rates held steady in the Boston and Kansas City Districts and were mixed in New York. Boston, Dallas, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Richmond commented that the demand for space remained weak. Commercial rents declined according to Boston, Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond. Rent concessions were reported in the Richmond and San Francisco markets, and Richmond noted that some landlords had postponed property improvements in an effort to conserve cash. Construction remained at very low levels, with modest improvements noted in public construction in the Chicago, Cleveland, and Minneapolis Districts."

OfficeFinder does not expect much improvement in occupancy until the employment figures turn very positive and positive office absorption can take place again.  We are hoping to see some improvements by the middle of 2011.

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A recent article in the NuWire Investor describes the state of the sublease office space availability throughout the US. In a word, plentiful. In fact, Cushman and Wakefield has pegged the amount of available sublease space at 10.3 million square feet at the end of the first quarter. Cities experiencing the largest increases in sublease office space include New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Denver and Boston.

My educated guess is that there is a lot more sublease office space available than is reported.  With all the recent layoffs, many companies have probably not had time or been willing to prioritize getting their excess space listed.  Many of these companies have more to worry about than a little excess office space. They are trying figure out how to survive.

A word to the wise. If you are considering renting or leasing sublease office space, be careful.  There are many pitfalls that need to be navigated to make sure that your sublease will stand up in the event the sub-lessor defaults. Makes sure to work with someone who knows the ins and outs, otherwise you could find yourself with nowhere to house your employees when you get evicted... without any fault of your own.

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According to a recent report by CBRE the amount of empty offices in downtown Chicago took an 8% jump in the first quarter of 2009. The year end 2008 empty office rate for office space in downtown Chicago stood at 12.3%. The 8% jump brings the current office vacancy to 13.3%. They also noted that there was a 40% increase in sublease office space to a total of 3.8 million square feet. Much of the sublease space came from "financial companies, including the collapsed Bear Stearns Cos. and Washington Mutual Inc. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. also resorted to subleases."

As we see unemployment increase we will also see a corresponding increase in the vacancy rate in not only Chicago, but all major markets. The higher the unemployment, the greater the increase in the office vacancy rate in that office space market. This in turn will help turn the office rental rates lower providing better deals for those tenants who are looking for space.

Taking advantage of these opportunities can be tricky, especially if you are considering sublease space.  There are risks involved and it is important that you get professional advice.  A great source is to use a tenant representative; a licensed real estate professional who specializes in office space leasing and sales. They have a fiduciary responsibility to look after your best interest. Avoid using listing agents.  No matter what they tell you, they represent the landlord.  Typically a tenant rep will not cost you anything since they share in commissions offered by the landlord. It is a win-win for you.  Make sure and level the playing field and have an advocate who know the tricks of the trade. They will make sure you not only get great space at the best price, but also avoid potentially business crippling mistakes.

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